Four Futures

As the disaster in the Gulf continues to play itself along with no end in sight and our worst fears become reality it is worth contemplating what our future holds with respect to climate change. Sara Robinson at A World of Progress has an excellent discourse on the realities of what we face.

The four generic futures were first described back in the 1970s by Dr. Jim Dator, founder of the futures program at the University of Hawaii. In her article Sara takes a look at each of the four possibilities.

1. Continuation - Business as usual. This is not just the deniers but those people who intellectually understand and accept the reality of global change but are so wed to the status quo that they’re incapable of dealing with it rationally.
2. Collapse - The end of the world as we know it. This is the Jared Diamond/James Howard Kunstler/Limits to Growth scenario, where civilization’s immensely complex and brittle systems break down, and life winds down to something more simple and local. This should not necessarily be considered a “worst case” scenario but one in which we recognize the limits of our environment and adapt accordingly. I, for one, lean this direction.
3. Discipline - We acknowledge and accept the magnitude of the problem, make a serious plan to deal with it and commit to following through. There will be sacrifice and change but much of what we value today may be salvaged. This is the path advocated by most environmentalists and climate activists.
4. Technology and Innovation - We rely on our ability to create technological solutions and carbon-free energy sources that will solve the problem.

Everyone has a favorite scenario but as Sara notes, we should be planning and considering all four as equally likely. This is not easy as "the powers that be" have a vested interest in the Continuation and Technology scenarios which translates, for them, into 'success'. They naturally discount Collapse and Discipline which translates into 'failure' in their book.

To quote Sara:

Our best hope, then, is to formulate a detailed plan (Discipline) that makes a serious investment in moving us quickly, calmly and in a fiercely committed way toward a new energy paradigm. We need to re-tool our economy and government to perpetuate this new system, one that acknowledges the boundaries of this planet and emphasizes more humane values. We need to face our new limits and find creative, joyful ways to live within them. As part of that discipline, we should also be openly talking about our fears (and hopes) for what Collapse might look like and figure out how we still might survive and make satisfying lives in even drastically reduced circumstances. The more familiar and comfortable we are with the full range of possible trade-offs we’re facing — including the most extreme ones — the more likely we are to be able to make whatever choices become necessary with intelligence and grace.