Beans and Cornbread Anyone?

Bryan over at Why Now, who isn't an economist, has come to the conclusion that we are in a recession and that due to secret guild rules real economists won't be able to tell us that this is so until after we have suffered through several months of pain. I think Bryan is an optimist but that is another story and there is at least one economist that lost his copy of the guild rules...

The US has entered its first full-blown economic recession in 16 years, according to investment bank Merrill Lynch.

Merrill, itself one of Wall Street’s biggest casualties of the sub-prime crisis, is the first major bank to declare that a recession in the world’s biggest economy is now underway.

David Rosenberg, the bank’s chief North American economist, argues that a weakening employment picture and declining retail sales signal the economy has tipped into its first month of recession.

Mr Rosenberg, who is well-respected on Wall Street, argues: “According to our analysis, this (recession) isn’t even a forecast any more but is a present day reality.”

[…] Mr Rosenberg points to a whole batch of negative data to support his analysis, including the four key barometers used by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NEBR) - employment, real personal income, industrial production, and real sales activity in retail and manufacturing.

Mr Rosenberg notes that although the NEBR will be the final arbiter of any recession, such confirmation may be two years away as it typically waits for conclusive evidence including benchmark revisions.

Have a nice recession. If you are an optimist like me you might consider putting some extra flour, corn meal, salt, beans, dry milk, peanut butter and maybe some spam back for a rainy day.