Wednesday, November 07, 2007

Oil Will Go Over $100 Today

Updated Below:

I am not a financial wizard but I think it is pretty safe bet that oil will pass the $100 mark today. It may fall back below a bit but at some point someone is going to push the price to this point and once it is broached it will tend to stay there. The dollar continues to soften and this, along with increasing demand is pushing the dollar based price up.

The thing is the Federal Reserve will again have to balance their desire to lower interest rates to help promote buying against all of the global downward pressure on the dollar. The Fed is between the proverbial rock and a hard place. Realistically, the US can't satisfy everyone but this won't stop Bernanke from trying.

The lower the interest rates, the lower the return for investors who will also see the cuts as a lack of faith in the economy. Lower faith in the economy leads to investors searching for better markets which leads to a further softening dollar. The softening dollar is linked to oil prices heading north and higher energy prices pushes up inflation. (Note: The dollar index against six leading global currencies hit a 34 year low yesterday.) We are in trouble.

The Bush administration didn't create this economic problem overnight and it's not going to solve it overnight even if it is willing. Here is a hint. When two of the richest, most successful American investors (Buffet and Soros) talk about the problems with the US economy (and put their money where their mouth is) there is damn good reason to get tense.

When you hear Bush and his GOP lapdogs talk about how fiscally responsible they are you can call bullshit. This pile of economic problems is completely their fault and it is time get them out from behind the wheel. They have trashed the US economy by their failure to control the credit markets, maintain peace in the middle east and reign in U.S. deficit spending. They have sold our heritage to the lowest bidder and are now spending our great grand children's money in Iraq.

It is recession time folks so gird your loins or something.

edited to correct spelling at 0840est.

Update: I missed... from CNN

NEW YORK ( -- Oil prices pulled back Wednesday after a weekly report showed that U.S. supplies fell less than expected.

U.S. light crude for December delivery was down more than $1 to below $96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after setting a new trading high overnight of $98.62. The price stood at $97.60 just before the inventory report was released.

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