Sunday, September 24, 2006

Iran's Rising Star

If you think the saber rattling against Iran is about nuclear weapons - you're wrong.
If you think the war in Iraq is about spreading democracy or about WMD you're wrong.
If you think that the U.S. is about to have one ally left (Israel)- you're right.

I've said this before but I will repeat myself. If you are not reading Jeff Huber over at Pen and Sword then you are missing out on some informed commentary about the current situation in Iraq and the reasons and rationale (or lack thereof) for the run up to the war with Iran. In his latest series Jeff does an excellent job of giving the reader and understanding of the motivations of the Cheney administration and reason why it is doomed to fail. I highly recommend stopping by Pen and Sword often.

Jeff's latest series: Iran's Star Rising in the Next World Order is a must read

Part I examines the underlying motives of the push for war with Iran.

Part II discusses how the run up to a possible Iranian confrontation parallels what we saw with Iraq and examines how, if at all, we can arrive at a better conclusion than we did last time.

Part III discusses why U.S. military action against Iran would be the end of the "world order" as we know it.

Here is a bit from Part III

The ancient Chinese general and philosopher Sun Tzu said, "Thus it is that in war the victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory."

The Dick Cheney neoconservatives who shaped the Bush administration's foreign policy are desperately looking for a victory to justify the defeats from their previous fights. Unfortunately, they don't think like Sun Tzu, so they still believe they can "win" by starting another ill-advised war, and they are unable to understand that they have already lost.

The prize in the next world order is control of global energy. That's what the Iraq invasion was really about. If there were a single enlightened, influential voice in or around the administration, it would tell young Mister Bush to reverse course immediately, and take steps to supplant China and Russia as Iran's energy partner (which is what Bush should have been doing all along).

Unfortunately for America, the influential policy shapers are the likes of Cheney, John Bolton, Bill Kristol and Charles Krauthammer, and the only thing they have in common with great Asian strategists like Sun Tzu is a fear of losing face. My fear is that if they manage to manipulate America into another act of military lunacy, our country will have squandered its gains of the last century before this one is a decade old.

The neoconservatives seem hell bent for Naugahyde to ensure that the United States goes out not with a whimper, but with a very big, very loud bang. My advice to young Americans who want to succeed in the next world order?

Learn Mandarin and Farsi.

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