What's Next?

As you can see I have launched my work project into the ether for comment. I think the key commenters are in Chicago for a client kick-off this week and may be snowbound if the weather reports are accurate for Chicago. Anyhow I have some time to talk about politics and what I see going forward.

All the talk on the nets from the "netroot gurus" are saying the yesterday was Obama's but after looking at some of the key races and digging a little I am not so sure that is really so true. I think the battle for California tells the tale. Obama lost California and he lost it big. This loss comes after both campaigns pulled out all the stops there.

Factor 1: Hillary Clinton won the gay, Latino, Asian, married, senior and younger vote. These are groups which she has not been so strong with in the past. She didn't take the African American, young white male and the wealthy vote(159-400K$/yr) vote. Hillary also won decisively in the hard-to-reach areas of Southern California and Central Valley. Both campaigns did their best in California and Hillary won.

Factor 2: Think about it. Obama has had all the media coverage for the last couple of weeks. We had the Kennedy endorsements (including California's First Lady Maria Shriver) not only did he lose California but in Massachusetts by 14 points. He also got a lot of celebrity endorsements which did seem to help the vote but it did get his name on TV. The Move-On endorsement(as wrong as it was) was probably a factor in Obama's recent surge.

Factor 3: Obama has a lot more money to spend that Hillary and that's a plus. The downside is that all of the endorsements from the "establishment" are going to make it difficult to continue to inflate his "change" message. We are also going to see the campaign shift to more traditional themes and turn more detailed and this a plus for Hillary. From the beginning she has had the upper hand when it comes to the "wonkish" part of campaigning.

While I could be surprised by the votes coming down the pipe, and yes Obama does have some momentum, I have a hard time thinking that this whole contest will not go right down to the convention. A lot is going to depend on what the media want. If they decide they want a Clinton/McCain showdown in November then that is more than likely what we will see. If they think Obama/McCain will sell more Preparation H then that is what we'll see. It will be very interesting to see how the traditional media try and drive the game.

Regardless of who gets the nomination I think the Dems should be very proud of the two candidates we have vying for the nomination. Both are worthy and while I think Hillary is the one who would be more prepared to start taking action on Day 1 I will support Obama if he is the nominee. My ideal would be to see him spend two terms as VP under Hillary and gain some experience and temper and be ready to take the reins in 8 years.