Developing Nightmare

Seymour Hersh of the New Yorker who is usually and unfortunately always right tells that

Bush is well into the planning for a massive pre-emptive strike on Iran focusing on its “nukular” capability. He and his pack of incompetent war mongers have convinced themselves that Iran will have a “nukular” weapon in the next few weeks or months.

Read the following slowly, word by word, and absorb all of the implications. These brilliant strategists believe that if we launch a devastating attack against Iran and embarrass the current government the Iranians will rise up against their own government and just like that another star in the crown of democracy in the Middle East. I’m sorry, but this is coming from the same crack team that has done such a brilliant job in Iraq and Afghanistan. Does it all sound hauntingly familiar?

From Hersh:

One former defense official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the Bush Administration, told me that the military planning was premised on a belief that “a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.” He added, “I was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’ ”

How about this little gem?

A senior Pentagon adviser on the war on terror expressed a similar view. “This White House believes that the only way to solve the problem is to change the power structure in Iran, and that means war,” he said.

Just like Iraq, Dubya has already decided that diplomacy won't work even though he hasn’t tried any. He's already decided that the only way to deal with the Iranians is to declare war on them. Just like Iraq the evidence irrelevant. Just like Iraq world opinion is unimportant.

Not only is the above absolutely and obviously insane but one of the options the White House is considering is using tactical “nukular” weapons for the attack against Iran. You did not misread that, I did in fact, say “nukular”. Evidently in some of the initial planning last winter some idiot included the use of a bunker-buster tactical nuclear weapon, such as the B61-11, against Iran’s underground nuclear sites. Bush latched on to that like an all day sucker.

Fortunately saner minds at the Pentagon are now trying to take that option off the table but predictably the White House is not interested, they want the “nukular” weapons.

If Dubya uses a “nukular” weapon against Iran the security of America is ancient history as is our standing with every other country in the world. There are nearly 2 billion Muslims in the world that might not understand why we bombed their brethren into the last century either.

Even if some modicum of sanity prevails and Bush only uses the new giant conventional bunker busters there are going be some serious repercussions. Has there been any thought about what might happen in Iraq? Afghanistan? The rest of the Middle East?

Do these folks think that Iran is without options? How about pumping more weapons and insurgents into Iraq and if not already extant insure a sectarian civil war?

How about funding the Saudi Shia and getting them to cut off the oil supply to the west by blowing all the pipelines?

How about supporting a Turkish invasion of the Kurdish in Northern Iraq to squash Kurdistan? Let’s not even talk about the level of international terrorism against American and allied targets.

I am not advocating that the U.S. just stand aside and let the Iranians develop the bomb but there is an awful lot of people in the business that think this eventuality is years away not months. We need an aggressive diplomatic strategy to sidetrack this. The unfortunate reality is that George Bush, Dick Cheney and Condi Rice are not capable of envisioning such a plan and wholly incapable of effecting it. This is a completely incompetent administration domestically and internationally. There is absolutely no evidence to the contrary and I defy anyone to produce it..

This is horribly serious and we need someone serious to handle it. Regardless of the solution to Iran and a nuclear capability, whether it is diplomacy or war, George Bush and company are the last persons in the world to handle it. It will be a disaster from the beginning.

I know it is too much to expect, but in the interest of the planet, Bush and company should resign and let the grownups handle this. Believing Bush is mature enough to realize that he is way, way beyond his level of competence is delusional but a guy can dream.

If there is any good news to be had, the Iranians most likely cannot develop a nuclear capability until after Bush is out of office. Unfortunately, we still have to live for a couple of years with a tin horn wannabe John Wayne in the Whitehouse with his itchy trigger finger on a pile of damn tactical “nukular” weapons and who is stupid enough to use them.