A number of observers seem to suggest that the economy is doing very well and that people mistakenly believe that the economy is on the wrong track. The facts are that trends in almost every indicator of the aggregate ‘macro’ economy –- GDP growth, investment, payroll employment, personal income—have been inferior in this business cycle and recovery when measured against earlier comparable periods.Moreover, the wages of workers (inflation-adjusted) fell in 2005 from 2004 levels and have been falling for several years. For instance, the wage (inflation-adjusted) of the median worker fell 1.3% in 2005. Given declining wages it is not surprising that the typical (median) household income fell for five years in a row through 2004 (2005 income data are not yet available), poverty has risen, and families have gone deeper into debt. Furthermore, health care costs are taking a bigger bite out of family incomes. The bottom line is that people do not feel good about trends in the economy because the things that matter most to them – wages, jobs, family income—have not been making them better off.
The administration claims that its tax cuts have led to jobs and growth. Yet, as we have shown, GDP, investment and other trends do not support this claim. A simpler way of showing the failure of the tax cuts to deliver jobs is to note that private sector jobs, excluding those generated by military or other government spending, have not increased since early 2001. If private sector jobs have not been created in significant numbers, how can one say that the tax cuts have worked?
Thanks Susie
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